Spain: Growth Forecasts (1980-2100)

July 8 2026 Trump Lashes Out at Spain: ‘Cut Off All Trade.’ Here’s Why That’s Unlikely.

The New York Times article (above) argues that Trump Trade threats are unlikely to have much effect on Spain (ES). Spain is a member of the European Union (EU) and is subject to EU agreements about trade. If the Trump Administration violated these agreements, there would be an EU-wide negative reaction, possibly a Trade War.

One way to validate this conclusion is to look at various Geopolitical growth forecasts for Spain (ES1 in the graphic above). Alignment with the US or the World System (W) is not much better than a Random Walk (RW). Business-as-Usual (no Geopolitical Alignment) either with Technological Learning-by-Doing (BAU)  or without  (ES2-3) provides a middle-ground. Unlimited Exponential Growth is forecast as the result of alignment with the EU.

Spain should not be and is not worried about Trade Shocks from the US and Trump threats will have little impact.

You can run the ESL20 model yourself using R-code here. For more of my posts see the Blog Roll: Spain. For information about how the ESL20 model was constructed and data sources, see the Boiler Plate and Dynamic Component Models.

Notes

• The Economy of Spain a highly developed social market economy. It is the world's 14th-largest by nominal GDP, the fourth-largest in the EU, and the sixth-largest in Europe. 
• The Politics of Spain under the framework established by the Constitution of 1978. Spain is established as a social and democratic sovereign country wherein the national sovereignty is vested in the people, from which the powers of the state emanate.
• The Geography of Spain a transcontinental country located in southwestern Europe and northern Africa, occupying about 84.6% of the Iberian Peninsula. Its territory includes a small exclave inside France called Llívia, the Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean Sea, the Canary Islands in the Atlantic Ocean, and several territories on or near the North African coast.
• IMF: Spain's Shift to Success For the first time in its modern history, Spain’s economy has come out of an international crisis stronger than it went into it.

ESL20 Measurement Model

The Growth Component (ES1) is a relatively equal weighting of all the indicators (CO2 Emissions, Energy Use, GDP, Labor Force, Population, Unemployment, Ecological Footprint, KOF Globalization Index and the Human Development Index). The other two components (ES2 and ES3) are Historical Feedback Controllers.

 

 

World-System (1980-2100) Six Forecasts for the United Kingdom

 

The US and the United Kingdom (UK) recently signed a Technological Prosperity Deal (I posted about the Deal here). After Brexit (the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union, EU), it seems that the purpose of the deal is obvious: the UK needs friends and Geopolitical Alliances after having essentially snubbed the EU. The US is the obvious next choice. But, the question remains: what would be the best Geopolitical Alliance for the UK? This post explores that question using the UKL20 Model (for more information about how the model was created, see the Boiler Plate).

The best Geopolitical Alliance for the UK is none, that is, to remain independent in the World-System and conduct Business as Usual (BAU) muddling through as necessary (RW).

In the graphic above are six growth forecasts for the UK1 state space component. From the Political Perspective, the UK-BAU Business As Usual models are the best, better than staying linked to the EU (a rationale for Brexit). The BAU models are unstable (largest eigenvalue greater than 1.0). The weaker models (EU, US, and W) are all stable and lead eventually to a Steady State Economy (a better result for reducing Environmental Degradation). The best short-term, year-to-year model is the Random Walk (RW), just muddling through.

You can experiment with the UKL20 Model and investigate the Technology models (TECHE and TECHP) here.

Notes

The  UKL20 Model Measurement Matrix is presented above. The state space components are UK1=(Growth-CO2-LU),   UK2=(CO2+E-Q),     UK2=(L+N+LU+EF-HDI). Note that all the components are historical feedback controllers, particularly Growth (UK1) is controlled by CO2 Emissions and Unemployment (LU).

The models (AIC = Akaike Information Criterion, smaller is better):

• RW Random Walk [11.69 < AIC = 20.71 < 30.63]
• BAU Business As Usual [81.86 <  AIC = 87.22 < 91.8 ]
• W World WL20 Input [34.58 < AIC = 60.83 < 82.67]
• US USL20 Input [29 < AIC =  63.25 < 90.17] 
• UK UK2_UK3 BAU Input [83.88 < AIC = 89.88 < 94.15]
• EU European Union [60.47 < AIC = 79.99 < 97.75]
• TECHP Technical Productivity [27.43 < AIC = 48.29 < 66.77]
• TECHE Technical Efficiency [61.16  < AIC = 73.08 < 82.33 ]