World-System (1980-2100) Six Forecasts for the United Kingdom

 

The US and the United Kingdom (UK) recently signed a Technological Prosperity Deal (I posted abut the Deal here). After Brexit (the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union, EU), it seems that the purpose of the deal is obvious: the UK needs friends and Geopolitical Alliances after having essentially snubbed the EU. The US is the obvious next choice. But, the question remains: what would be the best Geopolitical Alliance for the UK? This post explores that question using the UKL20 Model (for more information about how the model was created, see the Boiler Plate).

The best Geopolitical Alliance for the UK is none, that is, to remain independent in the World-System and conduct Business as Usual (BAU) muddling through as necessary (RW).

In the graphic above are six growth forecasts for the UK1 state space component. From the Political Perspective, the UK-BAU Business As Usual models are the best, better than staying linked to the EU (a rationale for Brexit). All these models are unstable (largest eigenvalue greater than 1.0). The weaker models (EU, US, and W) are all stable and lead eventually to a Steady State Economy (a better result for reducing Environmental Degradation). The best short-term, year-to-year model is the Random Walk (RW), just muddling through.

You can experiment with the UKL20 Model and investigate the Technology models (TECHE and TECHP) here.

Notes

The  UKL20 Model Measurement Matrix is presented above. The state space components are UK1=(Growth-CO2-LU),   UK2=(CO2+E-Q),     UK2=(L+N+LU+EF-HDI). Note that all the components are historical feedback controllers, particularly Growth (UK1) is controlled by CO2 Emissions and Unemployment (LU).

The models (AIC = Akaike Information Criterion, smaller is better):

• RW Random Walk [11.69 < AIC = 20.71 < 30.63]
• BAU Business As Usual [81.86 <  AIC = 87.22 < 91.8 ]
• W World WL20 Input [34.58 < AIC = 60.83 < 82.67]
• US USL20 Input [29 < AIC =  63.25 < 90.17] 
• UK UK2_UK3 BAU Input [83.88 < AIC = 89.88 < 94.15]
• EU European Union [60.47 < AIC = 79.99 < 97.75]
• TECHP Technical Productivity [27.43 < AIC = 48.29 < 66.77]
• TECHE Technical Efficiency [61.16  < AIC = 73.08 < 82.33 ]