UKL20: Net Zero By 2050?

 

An important goal of UK's A Green New Deal framework (see below) is to "decarbonize fast". The graphic above shows rapid reduction in CO2 levels after 2010 and a forecast (from the UKL20 Model) of Net-zero Emissions before 2050.

The second goal of UK's A Green New Deal framework (see below) is to "transform the Economy," particularly the Financial Sector. I cover that goal in another post, Shrinking the Financial Sector. The other three goals of A Green New Deal (Global Justice, Jobs and Protecting Nature) I will cover in future posts.

A reasonable hypothesis is that the UK is on the way to meeting it's Green New Deal goals in spite of Brexit, unless Neoliberalism reasserts itself and derails the project.

One material condition that would benefit A Green New Deal project is a Steady State Economy. For growth of the UK, the UK1 Model would require stabilization with possible input from the World System. CO2 stabilization would require creating reasonable Policy Wedges and the political will to take action where needed. 

The graphic above shows a Random Walk (RW) forecast from the UKL20 BAU Model starting after 2010 (dashed red line). The solid red lines show a 60% reduction Policy Wedge in CO2 Emissions. The UK Climate Change Act of 2008 required, by law, an 80% reduction in CO2 Emissions by 2050 (when the Act was first proposed, a 60% reduction was required).

The UK CO2 Emission reductions are generally considered a success. But,

UKL20 System Stabilization might not be compatible with "fast decarbonization" (see below).

I'll cover the "system stability" problem in another post (here). For further discussion of feedback loops see the UK Economy.

For my current and future posts see Blog Roll: The United Kingdom. You can run the  UKL20 BAU Model yourself on my Google site. For more information about this blog see the About Page. For more information about how the models were constructed and data sources, see the Boiler Plate and Blog Roll: Dynamic Component Models.

Notes

• A Green New Deal First Report of the Green new Deal Group
• Stern Review (2006): The Economics of Climate Change
• The Global Justice Report A plan for equality and prosperity within Planetary boundaries.
• Institute for New Economic Thinking UK economists and thinkers from a range of disciplines who challenge conventional wisdom and advance ideas to better serve society.
• Peak Oil Forecast and Global Warming A negative feedback loop for CO2 Emissions.
• A More Conservative Peak Oil Forecast No one knows the future!
• UK Climate Change Act of 2008 CO2 reductions mandated by law.
• Policy Wedges and State Space Simulation Models Policy wedges based on simulation models present a rational way of setting policy targets.

UKL20 TECHP Measurement Matrix

TECHP1 = (Q/N - L/N - CO2/N) Overall Productivity compared to Labor productivity and CO2 productivity. TECHP2 = (EG/N + CO2/N - L/N) Energy productivity and CO2 productivity compared to Labor Productivity. TECHP3 = (Overall Productivity Growth).

UKL20 CO2 Model

The model is stable.

UKL20 CO2 Model AIC Statistics

The best CO2 emission model for the UK takes TECHP (Technical Productivity) as input.

UKL20 Measurement Model

The UKL20 Measurement Model defines the state space of the UK DCM model: UK1 = (Growth-CO2-LU), UK2 =  (CO2+EG - LU - L)  UK3 = (LU + EG + N). Notice that (1) the component explaining the most variance (63.4%) is not an overall growth component but rather an historical growth controller, (2)  CO2 Emissions are important indicators in both UK1 and UK2 and (3) Both UK1 and UK2 are unstable components in the UKL20 model.

Stabilizing the UKL20 model requires reducing the responsiveness of UK1 and UK2 feedback loops to shocks. The rapid decline in CO2 emissions prior to 2010 was certainly a shock and if it was linked to a rise in Unemployment in Dirty Energy industries, it would have been a double shock to growth. 

 A Green New Deal is focussed on "rapid decarbonization," not system stability or coordinating the create of new "green" jobs or possible effects on Hardship Dynamics.

Google Copilot Search