Iran has currently reentered talks with the US over the Iranian nuclear program (here) after the US Bombed Iran's nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025. Iran and the US have had a long history of troubled and turbulent relations. Both the US and Israel seem to fear that one day a nuclear powered Iran could dominate the Middle East.
The best model for the Middle East is to stabilize growth rates with no Geopolitical Alignments.
Since I have models of the Iranian (IRL20), the Middle-Eastern Regional (MEA _BAU), the US (USL20) and the World (WL20) economies, I can predict different paths of overall growth under different Geopolitical Alignments.
- The Best Model (in terms of growth) is the MEA BAU (Business as Usual) model, essentially the Middle East without a dominant regional hegemon.
- The Next-Best Model is MEA driven by the Iranian Economy (IRL20)
- The Also-Ran Models are MEA driven by the US Economy (USL20) and the World System (WL20) when compared to a Random Walk (RW, the Middle East struggling to find some Geopolitical Alignments that work).
The only one of these models that is stable (see the AIC Statistics below) is MEA linked to the World System (WL20), but that model peaks after 2020 and then declines. In other words, stability for the Middle East would involve growth-and-collapse rather than a steady state (growth rates of the BAU model could easily be modified to produce a steady state, se the MEAL20 code).
Notes
For more of my posts on Iran, see the Blog Roll.
IR Measurement Model
MEA Measurement Model
IR_MEA Model
MEA BAU Model
IR_MEA AIC Statistics
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