According to the World Bank 2024 Pathways Out of Poverty Report ?Two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor live in Sub-Saharan Africa, rising to three-quarters when including all fragile and conflict-affected countries". From the report:
To have the maximum impact on poverty reduction, that growth must be inclusive by creating employment opportunities while ensuring that the poor can take advantage of opportunities (for example, through quality education). Promoting economic growth, basic investments, and insurance are fundamental to sustainably improve the lives of the poor. Those actions reduce multidimensional poverty and enhance resilience against extreme weather and other shocks.
What does my SSA L20 model predict for future growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? The graphic above shows forecasts from five models. The forecasts are all positive:
- Random Walk (RW) The Random Walk model presents the "Muddling-Through" baseline.
- Business as Usual (BAU) The Business-as-Usual model assumes no Geopolitical Input from other countries.
- World Input (W) The World Input Model (WL20) assumes input from the World System.
- US Input The US Input model assumes input from the US Economy.
- TECH The two Technology Models assume emphasis on Technical Productivity (TECHP) and Technical Efficiency (TECHE). They produce essentially the same forecasts.
Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) the best short term model is a Random Walk (RW) while the best attractor path is presented by input from the USL20 model.
You can run the full USL20R SSA Regional Model (here), the USL20 model (here) and the WL20 model (here). The SSA1 component is an equal weighting of all the state-space indicators.
Notes
SSA L201 AIC Statistics
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