Feb 27, 2026 The New York Times (today) published an article titled Don’t Look Now, but the GreenTransition Is Still Happening in spite of retreats from Sustainable Development Goals across the entire World-System. This would be good news if it was true, but it isn't. The NYT Article cherry-picks some positive examples but the aggregate data (graphic above) show that the Green Transition is basically stagnant.
This post will explain how the Green Transition Index (GREEN) is created and how the future forecast was constructed.
The GREEN index was created from seven indicator variables: Oil production (OIL), Oil Prices (P.OIL.), Global Temperature (TEMP), Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2), Carbon Emissions (Carbon) and the Ecological Footprint (TotalFootprint) and the number of Earths needed to support the current population (Earths). Data Sources are listed in the Boiler Plate. The, Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to construct three independent indexes that explain over 99% of the variation in the indicators (see the Measurement Model below)
The three components are: GREEN1 = (overall Growth in the Indicators), GREEN2 = OilMarket-Global Temperature controller and GREEN3 = Temperature-Oil Price Controller. The two historical controllers, GREEN2 and GREEN3, are of primary interest since they control overall growth.
The State Space model of GREEN index dynamics (see below) is stable with strong negative feedback. However, the behavior of the Green Transition over time is essentially at equilibrium and not changing.
Shocks to the system (see below) are heavily damped. Oil Price shocks and Global Temperature shocks eventually return the system to equilibrium.
Notes
Green Transition Index Measurement Model
Green Transition model
Green Transition Shock Decomposition
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