Future Scenarios for Iran

In an Opinion piece for the NY Times How Does This End? Four Scenarios for What Comes Next With Iran, Bret Stephens argues that there are four likely future scenarios for the War in Iran: (1) Regime Change, (2) Regime Modification, (3) Both sides declare 

victory and (4) the Realistic Path, US seizes Kharg Island (see the video above). These scenarios are all relatively short-term.

My interests are in more long-term Geopolitical alignments that might benefit Iran. It seems that most of the World-System has abandoned Iran. The US, Russia, China, and the EU are all sitting on the sidelines while the US and Israel continue an Air War. And, my simulations with the IR_LM model show that leaving Iran to "go it alone" (the Business-as-Usual or BAU model) produces the best future prospects (see the simulations here). The US and Israel seem intent on not letting the BAU Scenario go forward.

Notes

Remaking the Middle East: The U.S., Israel & Iran | FRONTLINE (PBS)