World-System (1950-2150) India as a Small Regional Country

 

A recent article in the New York Times (here) about the evident decline of US Hegemonic Power suggests that India (IN) might be one of the countries competing for world leadership once US dominance has passed. India might well try to resurrect the "... Indosphere, a zone of Indian cultural and linguistic influence that stretched far beyond the subcontinent in the period roughly between 250 B.C. and A.D. 1200..." Another article (here) suggests that India is in a difficult position, closer to the US than to Russia but unwilling to alienate other BRIC countries (see below in the Notes).

The question not being asked here is what would be the best Geopolitical Alignment for a country such as India and does that alignment involve Hegemonic domination of the World-System. This post investigates the question by estimating a state space model for India in the period (1950-2000) and then testing various Geopolitical Inputs to see the effect on the Indian Economy.

The graphic above shows the two state variables, IN1=(Growth) and IN2=(Q-N), with forecasts out to 2150. The best model (in terms of the AIC statistic, AIC=-6272.714 when compared to the BAU model AIC=-385.2805, smaller is better) to produce those forecasts (see the Boiler Plate for a description of the state space model and the data sources used) is the IN_LM_SC model (a Small Open Country) model. It shows that India would be approaching a steady state around 2150 with part of the Asia Region.

In another post (here), I look at alternative forecasts for World-System Hegemonic Dominance. India is one of the also-ran countries (in fact, the worst performer), not providing large growth stimulus to the World-System. In the upcoming period of Environmental Crisis and Hegemonic Chaos, maximum growth might not be the best choice for the World-System but it will be a Dynamic Attractor.

Notes

In term of Systems Theory, a Small Open Country is one that has no state variables. The state of the system is driven by the dominant Input Economy (the Asia Region in this case).  Here are the System Matrix (F) and the Input Matrix (G) for the IN_LM_SC model:

The small values for the coefficients in the System Matrix (e.g., -2.605049e-23) are effectively zero to within machine precision.

You can run the IN_LM_SC model yourself at the following Google Sites (here). You can also run the other BRIC country models:

• Brazil BR20 Model
• China CNLM Model
• Russia RULM Model
• South Africa ZA20 Model