World-System (1950-2150) Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts

A few new books have been written and reviewed in the New York Times (here) about the evident decline of US Hegemonic Power in the Trump II Administration. From what I can tell, all of the discussions are qualitative and speculative. Since the Future is unknown, there is plenty of space for conjecture.

What has not seemed to have been done is to make multi-model forecasts for the World System given inputs for different countries that are competing for Hegemonic Dominance. Since I have state space models for the World System and for all of the Hegemonic contenders (you can inspect and run the models here), I might as well see what the forecasts say.

The graphic at the beginning of this post shows alternative forecasts for overall growth in the World System. There are three exponential growth contenders: Japan (JP), the US (US) and Russia (RU, see below). The "also rans" are the United Kingdom (UK), Business-As-Usual (BAU), China (CN), India (IN) and a Random Walk (RW) to find a stable, sustainable attractor path.

The surprise forecasts is that Russia dominance of the World System (RU) would create unending, unstable exponential growth. Dominance by other countries have uniformly more modest impacts.

Aside from the fact that living in a Russian-dominated World-System would be an unpleasant authoritarian nightmare, the reason for unending exponential growth is that Russia would supply a rich natural resource base to be exploited by the World-System. Maybe from some perspectives, unending exponential growth is a positive thing, but from a Environmental perspective, it would be a disaster. We have to find a way to limit growth rates and, evidently, linking the World System to Russia is not the way to do it.

You can experiment with the World System model here. You can run the individual countries on the following sites:

Russia (RU_LM Model) An unstable model with strong Export-Employment historical controllers. Becomes cyclical when stabilized.

India (IN_LM Model) A Malthusian Economy currently in collapse mode. Stabilizing the economy is beneficial.

China (CN_LM Model) An unstable economy with strong historical Export-Employment controllers. Stabilizing the economy produces a steady state after 2100.

Japan (JP_LM Model) The Japanese economy has an unstable, sensitive relationship to the Export-Employment (X-HOURS) historical controller. Stabilizing the economy produces an immediate steady state without further growth. Prior to the Great Recession and the 2008 financial crisis, Japan practiced Shūshin koyō (employment for life). Adjustment to market conditions were based on modifying hours. In 1979, Ezra Vogel published Japan as Number One: Lessons for America. The Great Recession and the 2008 financial crisis put an end to fears of Japanese domination of the World-System.

US (US_LM Model) The US is the current Hegemonic Leader of the World-System, but it's leadership is collapsing in the Trump II Administration. The US Economy is an unstable, cyclical model with unstable Export-Employment historical controllers. Stabilizing the model produces a cyclical steady state with wide swings.

UK (UK_LM Model) The UK model is also unstable and cyclical but the cycles are mild until well into the 22nd Century. There is no historical controller for HOURS and both HOURS and the (X-N) population controller follow cycles in the overall economy. The UK withdrawal from the EU (Brexit) can be viewed as an attempt to shield the economy from European shocks.

Some other countries you might investigate are:

• Brazil (BR_20 Model) An unstable model that leads to collapse (stabilizing the model also leads to collapse). There are strong historical unemployment and environmental Controllers. See if you can find a steady state for this economy! 
• South Africa (ZA_20 Model) An unstable economy with strong Globalization-Environmental historical controllers. Stabilizing the economy would lead to a steady state in the distant future (well after 2100).

One thing to keep in mind when exploring potential hegemonic leaders is that the countries being dominated will to some extent (depending on the strength of their historical feedback controllers) take on the historical patterns of the hegemonic leader (India being an extreme Small Country example). Cyclical patterns that may be good for a decade, might not be so desirable during the first downturn.

You can learn more about how the models were constructed in the Boiler Plate. For more discussion of the Indian Economy, see India as a Small Regional Economy.