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If President Obama is looking at some readily available forecasts, however, he must be anxious. The Financial Forecast Center (FFC) is forecasting (here) a huge increase in US unemployment for next year (graphic above).
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The FFC long-range forecasts (available by subscription) are only made out to 36 months. Commentators are concerned that the US is in for a "New Jobless Era". Jobs have been permanently lost to technology and globalization. The 2000 Financial Crisis swept away all the jobs created by the housing bubble. The jobs created by the bubble may simply never return.
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To look at the real long-range, out to 2050, my model predicts an increase in US unemployment that is in line with the FFC forecast, anything from just over 9% to well above 11%. My guess is that the FFC artificial intelligence model is "seeing" the trend happen a little too quickly give the severity of the financial collapse.
We should also keep in mind that the BLS unemployment data is thought to be biased downward (here). Actual unemployment may be above 18% when considering underemployment and discouraged job seekers.
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