November 12, 2025. The New York Times is reporting that Carbon Dioxide Emissions Head for Another Record in 2025. The time plot above (with Bootstrap 98% Prediction Intervals) makes the same forecast from my WL20 model. Nothing has changed since 2008, the end of my historical data in this model. How are we to understand the projection?
The IPCC has accumulated a mountain of scientific results around CO2 Emission forecasts and produced a number of alternative Emission Scenarios for the future (see the Boiler Plate). Climate Change Deniers can pick at the underlying models and the Emission Scenarios, but the underlying Kaya Identity (directed graph above) is true by definition. An increase in population (N) or any of the other extensive variables (L=Labor Q=Production and E=Energy Use) will increase CO2 Emissions unless the intensive variables (coefficients n=N/L, q=Q/L, e=E/Q, and c=CO2/E) are reduced (you can calculate the coefficients yourself from available historical data or use R-code here).
It can also be argued that the Kaya Identity has no feedback effects. As conditions in the World System deteriorate due to increasing Global Temperature (T), it should feedback to reduce all the extensive variables. For example, population growth should be reduced by heat waves, crop failures, sea level rise, famines, production and employment declines, etc. This is where state space DCM models (see the Boiler Plate) directly estimate feedback effects in the World System (see the WL20 model here and the Measurement Matrix in the Notes below). The feedback effects are from Environmental Controllers (W2=0.7705 LP - 0.235 T) and World Markets (W3 = 0.712 P.Oil. - 0.241 OIL - EF 0.293) on Overall Growth, W1.
The feedback effects are not strong enough to limit the Kaya Dynamic, that is, change the intensive coefficients. The forecast graphic at the beginning of this post, whether CO2 is driven by Carbon Emissions or driven by the World System, predicts continued exponential growth.
Since the World System is cyclical, emissions start to grow again around 2100. I would expect that if Carbon emissions hit zero before the 22nd Century, the World System itself would be subject to changes that are only wildly speculative in 2025.
According to the NY Times article (here), China, the US, India and Europe are the Major CO2 emitters. I have produced a forecast for US CO2 Emissions (here). I will do the same for China, India and Europe in Future Posts.
Notes
More posts on the World System:
- Global Temperature Projections Using the World System model, Global Temperature will peak below +1.5 degrees Centigrade. Using the Kaya Model, it will not (goodbye Polar Ice Caps).
- A More Conservative Peak Oil Forecast World Oil production, and the resulting CO2 emissions, might not collapse in 2040.
- Peak Oil and Global Warming Peak Oil Production, at some time in the Future, seems reasonable but "when" is hard to predict.
- World Population Collapse Both the UN and my WL20 model predict that World Population will start to collapse after 2050. If that really happens, there will be ripple effects throughout the Kaya Identity!
- A New Axis of Evil Looks scary but they might be no better at running the World-System than the US.
- Geopolitical Linkages: Canada, Mexico and the US The Trump II Administration is tinkering with a World-System that they do not understand.
- US Attempts to Dominate India In the long-run, it would lead to the collapse of India.
- World System Steady State and Collapse The only stable, steady state future for the World System is dominance by Europe. Right now, competition between the major Hegemonic contenders (the US, Russia and China) might not produce a steady-state Future.
- Hegemonic Dominance Forecasts Dominance of the World System by Russia would lead to (1) unending exponential growth and (2) a Dystopian Nightmare.
- Six Futures for the World System The best Future for the World System involves no Hegemonic Leader.
- US CO2 Forecasts Emissions are declining in the US but the best way to reinforce the trend is to let gasoline prices increase, a political non-starter.
- Coal will make Reducing Energy Intensity Difficult Reducing the mining and burning of coal will be difficult and the Trump II Administration is trying to "Greenwash" the problem by rebranding it "Clean Coal," which it isn't.
- EU Gives Up on Climate Regulation! Really? Backtracking might simply be an admission that EU countries are reaching a steady state.
- US CO2 Emission Reduction Unlikely as a result of COP17 Steady-state emissions are more likely rather than reductions.
- World Impact Forecasts More on Impact Models, if you are interested. Impact models do not have feedback effects but they are easy to calculate by hand and maybe feedback effects are weak in the World-System.
- How to Balance the World System Wait for Growth-And-Collapse.
WL20W Measurement Model
CO2 Model
Kay Coefficient Model
WL20 Carbon Model
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