World-System (1950-2000+) Iranian Globalization and Unemployment

 

The IR2 component (Unemployment and Globalization) is the second most important state variable in the IR_LM model and explains about 12% of the variation in the indicators. Unlike the IR3 (Environmental-Globalization feedback controller), IR2 is not a feedback controller but rather a "historical component". The White Revolution and the  Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration put a high premium on  Modernization and Globalization which rapidly brought population into the cities without immediate job availability (see the video on The Iranian Revolution).

The result was very high levels of Unemployment (a peak of almost 15% in the mid-1980s--see the graphic above). Notice that Globalization peaked in the mid-1970s (first graphic above) while Unemployment peaked about a decade later. 

The two graphics above show the attractor path (dashed red line) for both  Globalization and Unemployment and show that each was above sustainable levels until the early 1990's. The IR2 historical component shows why Islamic Fundamentalism organized wide-spread discontent in Iranian cities before the Iranian Revolution.

Notes

The IR_LM Measurement Model is:

The first state variable (row of the Measurement Matrix, IR1) describes overall growth in the Iranian Economy. The second state variable, IR2, describes  Unemployment and Globalization, (IR2 = 0.9091 SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS + 0.335 KOF) and the third state variable, IR3, is an environmental-globalization feedback controller, (IR3 = 0.827 KOF - 0.3878 SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS - 0.258 EF - 0.217 EG.USE.COM.KT.OE), for unemployment, ecological footprint and energy use.

Further reading:

• Iranian Revolution a series of events that culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979.

• Strait of Hormuz a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.

• Iran-Contra Affair a political scandal in the United States that centered on arms trafficking to Iran between 1981 and 1986, facilitated by senior officials of the Ronald Reagan administration

• Iran Nuclear Program one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world, has sparked intense international concern.

• Pahlavi Iran the Iranian state under the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty. The Pahlavi dynasty was created in 1925 and lasted until 1979 when it was ousted as part of the Iranian Revolution, which ended the Iranian monarchy and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.

• Iran-Iraq War an armed conflict between Iran and Iraq that lasted from September 1980 to August 1988. Active hostilities began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran and lasted for nearly eight years, until the acceptance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 by both sides.

• Iranian Economy a mixed, centrally planned economy with a large public sector. It consists of hydrocarbon, agricultural and service sectors, in addition to manufacturing and financial services, with over 40 industries traded on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

• The White Revolution a far-reaching series of reforms to aggressively modernize the Imperial State of Iran launched on 26 January 1963 by the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and ended with his overthrow in 1979.

• Modernization Theory holds that as societies become more economically modernized, wealthier and more educated, their political institutions become increasingly liberal democratic and rationalist.

• Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration The United States foreign policy during the presidency of John F. Kennedy from 1961 to 1963 included diplomatic and military initiatives in Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, all conducted amid considerable Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe.

• Sharia Law a body of religious law that forms a part of the Islamic tradition based on scriptures of Islam, particularly the Qur'an and hadith.

Blog Roll:

• The Iranian Revolution Still being worked out today.
  
  
• A Deep Dive into the Iranian State Space Cycles vs. Control
  
  
• The Impact of the Iranian Revolution Still being worked out today.
  
  
• Will Israel and US Attacks Hurt the World-System? Yes