The Trump II Administration's Gunboat Diplomacy in the Caribbean has brought Colombia into the supposed War on Narco-trafficers. The BBC Reports (here) that
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has said that a boat recently bombed by the US was "Colombian with Colombian citizens inside", an allegation the White House called "baseless".
To provide some background to Trump's legally questionable military actions in International Waters, it would seem useful to understand the Economy of Colombia and how it might be affected by possible US military action. Google AI provides the following overview:
Colombia also has an historical reputation as a Cocaine Trafficker, but the Cocaine trade has recently been disrupted as a result of domestic and global forces that are reshaping the drug industry.
My first question, in this post, is what Geopolitical Alliances would be best for Colombia and how might Trump's Drug War affect the alliances. The graphic at the beginning of this post shows six "reasonable" future alignments for Colombia (some "unreasonable" futures are discussed below). Alignment with the US is cyclical and unstable, as is alignment with Russia (RU) and just continuing Business as Usual (BAU). Focusing on Globalization (KOF) provides the most stable future and is the best model from the standpoint of the AIC (see the Notes below, [23.47 < AIC = 51.86 < 81.82). Linkage with the World System (W) generates collapse starting around 2025.
Notes
- Columbia officially the Republic of Colombia,[c] is a country located in South America, with insular regions in North America.
- Columbia IMF The Colombian economy continues to expand with some moderation in key imbalances. After slowing sharply in 2023, the economy expanded by 1.7 percent in 2024 supported by private consumption, reflecting a robust labor market and a gradual recovery in investment.
- History of Columbia includes its settlement by indigenous peoples and the establishment of agrarian societies, notably the Muisca Confederation, Quimbaya Civilization, and Tairona Chiefdoms.
- Politics of Colombia a presidential representative democratic republic with a multi-party system, where the President of Colombia is both head of state and head of government. The national government has separate executive, legislative, and judicial branches.
- Economy of Colombia the fourth largest economy in Latin America as measured by gross domestic product and the third-largest economy in South America.
- Geography of Colombia situated largely in the north-west of South America, with some territories falling within the boundaries of Central America. It is bordered to the north-west by Panama; to the east by Brazil and Venezuela; to the south by Ecuador and Peru; and it shares maritime limits with Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
- 2026 Colombia Presidential Election Incumbent president Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022, was constitutionally barred from seeking a second term. Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly defeated Iván Cepeda in the run-off election held on 21 June 2026.
- Demographics of Colombia Colombia is the second-most populous country in South America after Brazil, and the third-most populous in Latin America, after Brazil and Mexico.
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