The New York Times article (above) argues that Trump Trade threats are unlikely to have much effect on Spain (ES). Spain is a member of the European Union (EU) and is subject to EU agreements about trade. If the Trump Administration violated these agreements, there would be an EU-wide negative reaction, possibly a Trade War.
One way to validate this conclusion is to look at various Geopolitical growth forecasts for Spain (ES1 in the graphic above). Alignment with the US or the World System (W) is not much better than a Random Walk (RW). Business-as-Usual (no Geopolitical Alignment) either with Technological Learning-by-Doing (BAU) or without (ES2-3) provides a middle-ground. Unlimited Exponential Growth is forecast as the result of alignment with the EU.
Spain should not be and is not worried about Trade Shocks from the US and Trump threats will have little impact.
You can run the ESL20 model yourself using R-code here. For more of my posts see the Blog Roll: Spain. For information about how the ESL20 model was constructed and data sources, see the Boiler Plate and Dynamic Component Models.
Notes
- The Economy of Spain a highly developed social market economy. It is the world's 14th-largest by nominal GDP, the fourth-largest in the EU, and the sixth-largest in Europe.
- The Politics of Spain under the framework established by the Constitution of 1978. Spain is established as a social and democratic sovereign country wherein the national sovereignty is vested in the people, from which the powers of the state emanate.
- The Geography of Spain a transcontinental country located in southwestern Europe and northern Africa, occupying about 84.6% of the Iberian Peninsula. Its territory includes a small exclave inside France called Llívia, the Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean Sea, the Canary Islands in the Atlantic Ocean, and several territories on or near the North African coast.
- IMF: Spain's Shift to Success For the first time in its modern history, Spain’s economy has come out of an international crisis stronger than it went into it.
ESL20 Measurement Model
