World-System (1970-2050) Five Futures for Syria

 

In a prior post (here) I presented one collapse scenario for Syria, now that the long standing Assad Regime has fallen. In this post, I will explore some alternatives (in the graphic above). A description of the SY20 model is provided below.

• BAU The Business-as-Usual model is probably the best description of the Assad Regime. It was a unstable regime maintained by force. One fear about the collapse of the regime is that the future will be chaotic. Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the BAU model is one of the best models (-54.37 < AIC = -10.37 < 23.99) describing the SY20 system (see Notes below, the smaller the AIC, the better). 
  
  
• US Diplomatic relations between Syria and the United States are currently "nonexistent". Syria was put on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list in 1979 and is the only country that has remained continuously on the list. From the period of the "War on Terror", the U.S. government has imposed a series of economic sanctions on Syria. After the government crackdown during the 2011 Syrian revolution; the US (alongside the European Union and Arab League) withdrew diplomatic recognition. The US has provided political, military and logistic support to the Syrian opposition. The new Syrian government might seek stronger linkages with the US, but the projections above are not very promising and somewhat unlikely (

  107.6 < AIC = 161.3 < 203.3).

   
  
  
• RU Diplomatic relations between Russia and Syria have had, up to now, a long, friendly and stable history. Unfortunately for Bashar al-Assad (the current and now deposed president), Russia failed to defend the regime even though it had been providing military support up to the final coup. From the graphic above, the projection for Russia's support of Syria is cyclical and not much better than a Random Walk. The RU Puppet model, which Syria long resisted, would not be the best model for the future (97.65 < AIC = 162 < 219.9). Russia has it's own set of problems (not dissimilar to Syria) which I will cover in a future post.
  
  
• RW The Random Walk model essentially makes no predictions about the future except that tomorrow will be like today with the addition of random error. Notice that it is not much different from either the US, RU or World models when taken as input. For the RW model (55.99 <  AIC = 95.64 < 125.5).
  
  
• W Maybe somewhat surprisingly, linking Syria with the World System would not produce a result much better than a random walk (119.4 < AIC = 177.1 < 217.6). However, in World-Systems Theory, Syria is a Peripheral Country with weak institutions and a small share of World wealth. 
  
  
• MEA The worst possible future for Syria is linkage with the MiddleEast-Africa. Projections indicate a severe collapse for the system (97.65 < AIC = 162 < 219.9).

In significant ways, these future projections for Syria do not capture the real problems for both Syria and Russia. In the Measurement Matrix, presented below, the primary feedback components for Syria are 1) Environmental (SY2 = 0.6926 EF - 0.4920 Energy Use) where EF is the Ecological Footprint and 2) Globalization induced unemployment (SY3 = 0.8838 LU - 0.363 KOF) where KOF is an index of globalization. I will cover these issues in future posts.

Notes

The SY1 state variable is a relatively equal weighting of six indicators from the World Development Database plus the KOF Index of Globalization, the Ecological Footprint (EF) and the UN Human Development Index (HDI). The FR2 index is (EF - EnergyUse) and the FR3 index is (Unemployment-Globalization) error correcting controllers (ECC), respectively. The major component creating the collapse in Syria is FR2, the environmental component. It should come as no surprise that Syria is in environmental crisis (here).

The SY20 model has no indicators describing the now-collapsed Syrian dictatorship so the future will be dominated by continuing environmental problems and globalization-driven unemployment. A government of rebel commanders is unlikely to address any of the issues that led to collapse

The SY20 model also does not capture trade relations, particularly with Russia (a vital supplier of essential commodities). I will cover Syrian Trade in a future post.

You can run the SY20 BAU model here. The model is unstable (see the System Matrix below).

You can stabilize the system by setting F[2,2]=1.012095084 to some number < 1.0 but greater than zero and rerunning the model. What results to you observe?

To give you a brief idea of what the Syrian Battle Space was like (a mess) here is a map from 2021.