Word System (2000-2100) Collapse of Syria

The New York Times (here) is reporting that the Syrian government has collapsed and the country has been overrun by rebel forces. The NYT is also saying that predicting Syria's future is challenging "...as the government’s sudden demise took many people who have watched the region for years by surprise." 

It must be the timing of the collapse that is surprising (as is often the case with dictatorships). The collapse itself was predictable, as can be seen from the graphic above. The SY20 model is based on data up to 2010 and predicts system collapse after 2040, so the current collapse is a little premature but still predictable.

Notes

The SY1 state variable is a relatively equal weighting of six indicators from the World Development Database plus the KOF Index of Globalization, the Ecological Footprint (EF) and the UN Human Development Index (HDI). The FR2 index is (EF - EnergyUse) and the FR3 index is (Unemployment-Globalization) error correcting controllers (ECC), respectively. The major component creating the collapse in Syria is FR2, the environmental component. It should come as no surprise that Syria is in environmental crisis (here).

The SY20 model has no indicators describing the now-collapsed Syrian dictatorship so the future will be dominated by continuing environmental problems and globalization-driven unemployment. A government of rebel commanders is unlikely to address any of the issues that led to collapse.

You can run the SY20 BAU model here.