World-System (1960-2100) Six Futures for Germany

 

In a prior post (here) I presented results from the DEL20 Model that suggested the German Economy may have reached a steady state sometime after the year 2000. I have also argued (here) that the Steady State Economy, although it will solve some environmental problems by stabilizing CO2 emissions, might create other Geopolitical problems by becoming the target of predatory economies focused on World domination (e.g., Germany in the Nineteenth Century) The question for this post is whether some (new?) Geopolitical Alignment might protect Germany from the (possible) fate of stagnant steady-state economics. The answer isn't encouraging.

From the graphic above, you can see that alignment with the European Union (EU) or Business as Usual (BAU, NS, RW) don't shock the German Economy out of the steady state. Alignments with the World System (W) or the United States (US) are even worse. Here are the specific results:

• Random Walk (RW)
• Nation State (NS)
• European Union (EU)
• Business as Usual (BAU)
• World System (W)
• United States (US)
• Russia (RU)

NOTES