Has Smallpox Been Eradicated?

The Earth Policy Institute published today (here) an article on smallpox and polio. Smallpox caught my attention after reading the following quote from the article:

Smallpox plagued humanity for thousands of years. In the 18th century, smallpox killed one out of every ten children in France and Sweden. Over the 20th century, the virus caused between 300 and 500 million deaths worldwide. No effective treatment was ever developed.

The eradication of this devastating disease is one of public health’s greatest achievements. It involved mass vaccinations and surveillance to track and contain outbreaks. In 1977, ten years after the World Health Organization (WHO) began an intensive eradication program, the last naturally occurring case of smallpox was identified in Somalia. And on May 8, 1980, the World Health Assembly declared smallpox eradicated.

What also caught my attention was the large spikes in the number of reported cases after World War II, in the late 1950's and in the mid-1970's. My question was what caused the spikes and whether we could be sure that surveillance and vaccination were enough to prevent future outbreaks.

The result of my forecast from the WL2o model is presented in the graphic above. It suggests that future outbreaks are possible. The reason is that the late 20th century spikes are related to spikes in commodity market prices. Whatever the mechanism, future problems in commodity markets (which can be anticipated based on peak oil forecasts) could have unanticipated population health consequences.