The Trump II Administration's Gunboat Diplomacy in the Caribbean has brought Colombia into the supposed War on Narco-trafficers. The BBC Reports (here) that
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has said that a boat recently bombed by the US was "Colombian with Colombian citizens inside", an allegation the White House called "baseless".
To provide some background to Trump's legally questionable military actions in International Waters, it would seem useful to understand the Economy of Colombia and how it might be affected by possible US military action. Google AI provides the following overview:
Colombia also has an historical reputation as a Cocaine Trafficker, but the Cocaine trade has recently been disrupted as a result of domestic and global forces that are reshaping the drug industry.
My first question, in this post, is what Geopolitical Alliances would be best for Colombia and how might Trump's Drug War affect the alliances. The graphic at the beginning of this post shows six "reasonable" future alignments for Colombia (some "unreasonable" futures are discussed below). Alignment with the US is cyclical and unstable, as is alignment with Russia (RU) and just continuing Business as Usual (BAU). Focusing on Globalization (KOF) provides the most stable future and is the best model from the standpoint of the AIC (see the Notes below, [23.47 < AIC = 51.86 < 81.82). Linkage with the World System (W) generates collapse starting around 2025.
Notes
Economy of Columbia
No comments:
Post a Comment