Most Geopolitical Alignments are mildly beneficial, except for alignment with the World System which is not. The order of benefits (in terms of comparison to a Random Walk, RW) are Asia Region (AXJ), Business as Usual (BAU, no alignment) and United States (US).
One forecast missing from my standard forecasts (and the most concerning) is the one involving Geopolitical Alignment between Russia and China. Although the alignment has been publicly proclaimed by each country, there is increasing concern about CN intelligence activities in Russia (here). For more information about China-Russia relations, see the Wikipedia page (here).
I will investigate Global South alignments for China in a another post here. For more information about how the statistical models were constructed and estimated see the Boiler Plate.
Notes
Excerpts from ChatGPT:
No comments:
Post a Comment